A classic puzzle...

The build up to the year’s first English classic at Newmarket on Saturday has been dominated by the horses that won’t make the race as much as the ones that will contest it. The general feeling from last year was that the two year old colts could be a vintage crop and we entered the new season with high anticipation for the first Saturday in May, Unfortunately in recent weeks several horses at the head of the market have fallen by the wayside, leaving the race with a more open feel and certainly a lot more competitive. First there was the news that the unbeaten Quorto was injured and would be side lined until the second half of the season. This was followed by the even bigger blow that last year’s top rated two year old and ante post favourite for the 2000 Guineas Too Darn Hot had met with a setback and would also miss the race. Thankfully he is back cantering again and has the Dante on his agenda. The impressive Greenham winner Mohaather was the next to be ruled out when he was found to be lame last week, and in the meantime both Andre Fabre’s Persian King and the Coventry winner Calyx were both routed to other big race targets for different reasons. 

So what are we left with? In spite of all the absentees the final declaration of the 19 intended runners still boasts quality in abundance. At the head of the market are two Aiden O' Brien runners with similar profiles but different qualities, Magna Grecia and Ten Sovereigns. Both horses ran three times at the back end of last season in the space of just over four weeks, both picked up Group 1’s and both have experience over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile. The main difference between them is that while Magna Grecia has already shown he stays the 1600 metres trip well when winning the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster, Ten Sovereigns has only raced over 1200 metres showing brilliant speed to win the Group 1 Middle Park and now has to go 400 metres further. However, there is encouragement on pedigree on the dams side that he will stay and Ryan Moore clearly thinks so as Ten Sovereigns is his selected mount. The second highest rated horse in the field is Advertise the mount of Frankie Dettori, a Group 1 winner at two and second to both the speedy Calyx and the brilliant Too Darn Hot in two other starts he also has stamina to prove but has the form in the book and the right man on board. The first four horses in the Craven Stakes all reoppose on Saturday – Skardu, Momkin, Set Piece and Royal Marine. Although there was only two and a half lengths separating all four and it is difficult to know which horses were fully tuned up for their seasonal debut, Skardu was the least experienced making only a second lifetime start so there should be more improvement to come. Madhmoon defeated Broome on his final two year old start and that horse has come out and franked the form, and was certainly not disgraced when giving weight to a race fit opponent in the 2000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown. Godolphin paid 350 000 SEK to supplement Al Hilalee so he has clearly been showing his trainer Charlie Appleby something on the gallops but he will need to come forward a long way from his Listed form at Deauville. Of the others and in the absence of both Too Darn Hot and Calyx John Gosden saddles Kick On who won the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket, and Richard Hannon relies on interesting outsider Urban Icon who along with Great Scot will be looking to uphold the Greenham form, but on the figures all will need to improve to figure in the placings.